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Exponential Framework

Work in Progress: This methodology is in the ideation phase and under active development. We welcome your feedback and suggestions to help shape this framework.

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Pillar Weight Methodology

A science-based approach to determining where each company can have the greatest climate impact, grounded in established frameworks from CDP, SASB, PCAF, and peer-reviewed academic research.

Methodology Summary

We use a Sector Archetype Model with company-specific adjustments. Each company is assigned to one of 10 sector archetypes, which provides base pillar weights derived from SASB materiality classifications and CDP Scope 3 relevance data. These base weights are then adjusted based on company-specific evidence such as avoided emissions ratios and documented climate finance activities.

Primary Pillar
Highest weight ≥30%. This is where the company can have the biggest climate impact.
Secondary Pillar
Second highest ≥15% AND at least 10% below Primary. Significant but not dominant impact area.

Three-Step Weight Determination Process

1

Assign Sector Archetype

Classify the company into one of 10 sector archetypes based on their primary business model and revenue sources. This determines the base weight template.

2

Apply Adjustment Factors

Adjust base weights based on company-specific evidence: avoided emissions ratio (P3), climate finance activities (P4), and policy leadership (P5).

3

Designate Primary/Secondary

Apply threshold rules: Primary pillar must be ≥30%. Secondary pillar must be ≥15% and at least 10% below Primary. Normalize weights to sum to 100%.

Sector Archetype Templates

Each archetype has base pillar weights derived from SASB materiality classifications and CDP Scope 3 relevance data. Click on any archetype to see the calculation example.

Heavy Industry

Steel, cement, chemicals - operations-dominant with high Scope 1-2 emissions

Primary: P1Secondary: P2
P1
50%
P2
25%
P3
10%
P4
5%
P5
10%
Calculation Example: Stegra
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Green steel production requires transforming core operations (P1: 50%). Value chain decarbonization for raw materials is secondary (P2: 25%).

CDP Scope 3 Technical Note: Steel sector has 70%+ Scope 1-2SASB: GHG Emissions is material for Metals & Mining

Consumer Goods & Retail

Retail, apparel, food - value chain dominant with extensive supplier networks

Primary: P2Secondary: P3
P1
10%
P2
60%
P3
15%
P4
5%
P5
10%
Calculation Example: IKEA
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85%+ of emissions in supply chain (P2: 60%). Product design for circularity and lower footprint is secondary (P3: 15%).

CDP: Retail sector Scope 3 typically 90%+ of totalSASB: Supply Chain Management material for Apparel/Retail

Financial Services

Banks, asset managers, insurers - financed emissions dominate impact

Primary: P4
P1
5%
P2
5%
P3
5%
P4
80%
P5
5%
Calculation Example: Handelsbanken
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Financed emissions are 700x operational footprint (P4: 80%). Own operations are negligible. PCAF methodology validates this allocation.

PCAF Global GHG Standard: Attribution Factor methodologyTCFD: Financial sector climate risk through portfolios

Professional Services

Consultancies, engineering firms - enabling impact through client solutions

Primary: P3Secondary: P4
P1
5%
P2
10%
P3
60%
P4
15%
P5
10%
Calculation Example: AFRY
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Engineering climate solutions at GW-scale creates 280x impact ratio (P3: 60%). Climate finance advisory (LTA, green bonds) adds secondary impact (P4: 15%).

WBCSD Avoided Emissions Guidance v2.0Khan, Serafeim, Yoon (2016): Materiality validation

Technology

Software, hardware, semiconductors - mixed operations and supply chain

Primary: P2Secondary: P3
P1
15%
P2
40%
P3
30%
P4
5%
P5
10%
Calculation Example: Apple
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Manufacturing supply chain dominates emissions (P2: 40%). Product efficiency and enabling solutions create secondary impact (P3: 30%).

CDP: Electronics sector Scope 3 Cat 1 (Purchased Goods) dominantSASB: Supply Chain Management material for Hardware

Utilities & Energy

Electric, gas, water utilities - generation and distribution focused

Primary: P1
P1
60%
P2
15%
P3
15%
P4
5%
P5
5%
Calculation Example: Vattenfall

Power generation is the core emissions source (P1: 60%). Fuel supply chain and customer solutions are secondary.

TCFD: Energy sector physical and transition risksTPI: Power sector decarbonization pathways

Real Estate & Construction

REITs, developers, construction - building operations and embodied carbon

Primary: P1Secondary: P2
P1
40%
P2
25%
P3
20%
P4
10%
P5
5%
Calculation Example: Skanska
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Building operations and construction emissions (P1: 40%). Embodied carbon in materials (P2: 25%). Green building solutions (P3: 20%).

SASB: Energy Management material for Real EstateTCFD: Buildings sector guidance

Transportation & Logistics

Airlines, shipping, rail, logistics - fleet operations dominant

Primary: P1Secondary: P2
P1
50%
P2
30%
P3
10%
P4
5%
P5
5%
Calculation Example: Maersk

Fleet fuel consumption dominates (P1: 50%). Fuel supply chain and customer logistics (P2: 30%).

CDP: Transport sector Scope 1 typically 60%+TPI: Shipping and Aviation pathways

Agriculture & Food

Farming, food processing, beverages - land use and supply chain

Primary: P2Secondary: P1
P1
20%
P2
50%
P3
15%
P4
5%
P5
10%
Calculation Example: Oatly
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Agricultural supply chain and ingredients (P2: 50%). Processing operations (P1: 20%). Product as climate solution (P3: 15%).

CDP: Food sector FLAG emissions guidanceSASB: Ingredient Sourcing material for Food & Beverage

Extractives & Mining

Oil & gas, mining - extraction and processing operations

Primary: P1Secondary: P2
P1
55%
P2
20%
P3
10%
P4
5%
P5
10%
Calculation Example: LKAB

Extraction and processing operations (P1: 55%). Scope 3 from product use is significant but outside direct control.

CDP: Extractives sector Scope 1-2 guidanceTPI: Oil & Gas and Mining pathways

Company-Specific Adjustment Factors

P3

Avoided Emissions Ratio

If a company's avoided emissions exceed their own footprint by a significant ratio, increase P3 weight.

RatioP3 Adjustment
10-50x+5%
50-100x+10%
>100x+15%

Based on WBCSD Avoided Emissions Guidance v2.0

P4

Climate Finance Activities

If a company has documented climate finance activities beyond their sector baseline, increase P4 weight.

EvidenceP4 Adjustment
1-2 activities+0%
3-4 activities+5%
5+ activities+10%

Activities: Green bonds, LTA, Pay-As-You-Save, carbon markets, etc.

P5

Policy Leadership

If a company demonstrates exceptional policy engagement and advocacy, increase P5 weight.

EvidenceP5 Adjustment
Basic advocacy+0%
Industry leadership+5%
Direct lobbying+5%

Max +10% for exceptional policy leadership

Detailed Calculation Example: AFRY

AFRY

AFRY AB

Engineering & Consulting | Sweden

1

Assign Sector Archetype

AFRY is an engineering consultancy with 70%+ revenue from climate solutions advisory. Assigned to: Professional Services archetype.

Base weights:P1: 5% | P2: 10% | P3: 60% | P4: 10% | P5: 10%
2

Apply Adjustment Factors

P3 Adjustment: +15%

Avoided Emissions Ratio: ~280x — AFRY's 27+ GW solar advisory enables ~10-15 MtCO₂e/year avoided emissions, compared to ~44,000 tCO₂e operational footprint.

Reference: WBCSD Avoided Emissions Guidance v2.0

P4 Adjustment: +5%

5 documented climate finance activities:

  1. Pay-As-You-Save building energy financing model
  2. Lender's Technical Advisor (LTA) for 344.5 MW Finland wind project
  3. Green Bond Framework advisory for Aker Horizons
  4. Carbon market modelling for investors
  5. Climate and transition risk assessments

5+ activities = +5% adjustment (could be +10% with more quantified evidence)

P5 Adjustment: +0%

AFRY has policy engagement (Fossil Detox Report, WEF Davos) but not exceptional industry-leading lobbying. Base weight maintained.

3

Calculate Final Weights & Designate Primary/Secondary

PillarBaseAdjustmentRawNormalizedDesignation
P1: Operations5%+0%5%5%-
P2: Value Chain10%+0%10%10%-
P3: Solutions60%+15%75%75%PRIMARY
P4: Finance10%+5%15%15%SECONDARY
P5: Policy10%+0%10%-5%*-

*Normalization: Raw total = 115%. P5 reduced by 5% to normalize to 100%. Final: P1: 5%, P2: 10%, P3: 75%, P4: 15%, P5: 5% (sum = 110%, further normalized proportionally if needed).

Final AFRY Pillar Weights

Primary: P3 (75%)— Climate Solutions
Secondary: P4 (15%)— Climate Finance

AFRY's climate impact is primarily through enabling client decarbonization (P3), with significant secondary impact through innovative climate financing mechanisms (P4).

Academic & Industry References

This methodology is grounded in peer-reviewed research and established industry frameworks. The following sources provide the scientific foundation for our approach.

Khan, M., Serafeim, G., & Yoon, A. (2016). Corporate Sustainability: First Evidence on Materiality

The Accounting Review, 91(6), 1697-1724

Firms with good performance on material sustainability issues significantly outperform those with poor performance. This validates sector-specific materiality weighting.

2,782+ citations

CDP (2024). Technical Note: Relevance of Scope 3 Categories by Sector

CDP Guidance Document (Version 3.0)

Provides sector-specific guidance on which Scope 3 categories are most material, based on literature review and analysis of actual CDP response data.

Industry standard citations

Partnership for Carbon Accounting Financials (2022). The Global GHG Accounting and Reporting Standard for the Financial Industry

PCAF (Second Edition)

Attribution Factor = Outstanding Amount ÷ (Total Equity + Debt). Provides scientific basis for allocating financed emissions to financial institutions.

Industry standard citations

World Business Council for Sustainable Development (2025). Guidance on Avoided Emissions: Helping Business Drive Innovations and Scale Solutions Toward Net Zero

WBCSD (Version 2.0)

Provides methodology for calculating avoided emissions - the positive impact created when comparing a low-carbon solution to a reference scenario.

Industry standard citations

SASB (now IFRS Foundation) (2023). SASB Materiality Map

IFRS Sustainability Disclosure Standards

Maps 26 sustainability issues across 77 industries using the Sustainable Industry Classification System (SICS). Provides industry-level materiality determination.

Industry standard citations

ADEME, CDP, World Benchmarking Alliance (2024). ACT Framework 2.0: Assessing low-Carbon Transition

ACT Initiative

Provides sector-specific module weighting for climate transition assessment, including guidance on avoided emissions calculation.

Industry standard citations